Tweet This Sunday, the Greek general election may decide if Greece will leave the Eurozonesometimes referred to as Grexit. Whether Greece would then remain a member of the EU if this were to happen is uncertain, with The Economist arguing this week that, in all likelihood, Greece would have to leave the EU as well.
Brexit is British policy towards eu integration the will of the British people — it never has been The referendum vote for Brexit was clear: The UK public actually did not, does not and will not want a Brexit in the foreseeable future.
Adrian Low makes this argument by analysing the post-referendum polls and demographic trends. The difference between leave and remain was 3. Moreover, according to predicted demographics, the UK will want to remain in the EU for the foreseeable future.
Eleven of these polls indicate that the majority in the UK do not want Brexit. The leader of UKIP even conceded defeat on the night of the vote, presumably because the final polls were convincing that Remain would win.
It is well known that polls affect both turnout and voting, particularly when it looks as though a particular result is a foregone conclusion.
It seems, according to the post-referendum polls, that this was the case. More Remain than Leave supporters who, for whatever reason, found voting too difficult, chose the easier option not to vote, probably because they believed that Remain would win.
A higher percentage of Leave voters changed their mind to Remain, whilst the Remain voters generally stood firm. What has been largely ignored are the Since the initial shock, the gap in favour of Remain has decreased and, now, stabilised.
Such unpalatable poll results have been left unreported or occasionally inaccurately reported. The deciding factor is still amongst those who did not vote, with 41 percent saying that Remain was their preferred option and 26 percent preferring Leave.
These figures are very similar to the News-night poll six days after referendum day when the comparative figures for the Remain and Leave non-voters were 35 percent and 19 percent respectively.
When the most recent figures are applied to the Of course should there be another referendum the previous non-voters might well come out in force because they know what is at stake — but they might not.
By March when Article 50 is due to be initiated, there will be approximatelynew year-old voters, with approximately a similar number of deaths, the vast majority 83 percent amongst those over Assuming those who voted stick with their decision and based on the age profile of the referendum result, that, alone, year on year adds more to the Remain majority.
The age group did have a vote in Scotland on independence and this referendum, many felt, was at least as important. Had the younger vote come out in force there is good evidence to suggest that the referendum result would have been different.
In the second group, members of the Commonwealth and Eire who were resident in the UK were able to vote but other members of the EU resident in the UK were not able to vote.
Clearly, if democracy is regarded as allowing those most affected by a decision to have a say in that decision, then this has not happened.
Conclusion So the UK electorate, as a whole, has been consistently against Brexit and the Remain majority will increase year on year. All things being equal Remain will be the choice of the public by the end of whether the abstaining electorate is counted or not.
Those who saw the vote as a protest against poverty are now experiencing the thin end of the wedge of inflation from a falling pound and slow, drip-like movement of multinational companies out of the UK. Some Remain voters have thrown in the towel, accepting what they see as inevitable.
A falling economy is bound to bite and reverse some of the enthusiasm for Leave and the effect of that will simply be to consolidate the trend against Brexit. Brexit is not the will of the people in the UK. It never has been. Sadly nothing less than a second, fairer referendum could redress the unfairness felt by the exclusion from the electorate of both the s and the non-UK EU residents.
This all paints a very sorry picture of the effectiveness of UK democracy. Had all the people spoken on the day the result would almost certainly be what the pollsters had predicted, and what the UK, according to the polls, still wants, and that is to Remain. This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Brexit blog, nor the LSE.The European Policy Centre (EPC) is an independent, not-for-profit think tank, committed to making European integration work.
This Sunday, the Greek general election may decide if Greece will leave the Eurozone, sometimes referred to as timberdesignmag.com of the likely winners of the election, including Syriza, want this, but if there is an unwillingness to address the restructuring of Greek debt, particularly given Syriza’s promises to dramatically increase public spending, this could be the outcome.
Government Gazette is a quarterly magazine which provides quality, politically neutral coverage of the leading institutions and policy makers across Europe. Abstracts "The Power of Systems: How Policy Sciences Opened Up the Cold War World" This talk reviews an influential conceptualization of prediction that was created by the 'father' of cybernetics, the US mathematician Norbert Wiener in the ss.
The Erasmus+ UK National Agency is seeking nominations for young people to join its team of EuroApprentices, tasked with raising awareness of Erasmus+ opportunities in the vocational education and training (VET) sector.
The difference between leave and remain was percent or million in favour of Leave. However, in a close analysis, virtually all the polls show that the UK electorate wants to remain in the EU, and has wanted to remain since referendum day.