One of the many advantages of scenarios is that they help test your deeply held assumptions about who you are, how the future will develop, and how you will need to react to remain relevant. You can then craft strategies with more awareness of yourself and your environment.
Crafting scenarios[ edit ] These combinations and permutations of fact and related social changes are called " scenarios ". The scenarios usually include plausible, but unexpectedly important situations and problems that exist in some small form in the present day.
Any particular scenario is unlikely. However, future studies analysts select scenario features so they are both possible and uncomfortable. Scenario planning help policy-makers and firms to anticipate change, prepare a response and create more robust strategies  .
Scenarios help a firm to anticipate the impact of different scenarios identify weaknesses. When disclosed years in advance, these weaknesses can be avoided or their impacts reduced more effectively than if similar real-life problems were considered under duress of an emergency.
For example, a company may discover that it needs to change contractual terms to protect against a new class of risks, or collect cash reserves to purchase anticipated technologies or equipment. Flexible business continuity plans with " PREsponse protocols " help cope with similar operational problems and deliver measurable future value-added.
Zero-sum game scenarios[ edit ] Strategic military intelligence organizations also construct scenarios. The methods and organizations are almost identical, except that scenario planning is applied to a wider variety of problems than merely military and political problems.
As in military intelligence, the chief challenge of scenario planning is to find out the real needs of policy-makers, when policy-makers may not themselves know what they need to know, or may not know how to describe the information that they really want.
Good analysts design wargames so that policy makers have great flexibility and freedom to adapt their simulated organisations .
Then these simulated organizations are "stressed" by the scenarios as a game plays out. Usually, particular groups of facts become more clearly important. This chief value of scenario planning is that it allows policy-makers to make and learn from mistakes without risking career-limiting failures in real life.
Further, policymakers can make these mistakes in a safe, unthreatening, game-like environment, while responding to a wide variety of concretely presented situations based on facts. This is an opportunity to "rehearse the future", an opportunity that does not present itself in day-to-day operations where every action and decision counts.
How military scenario planning or scenario thinking is done[ edit ] Decide on the key question to be answered by the analysis.
By doing this, it is possible to assess whether scenario planning is preferred over the other methods. If the question is based on small changes or a very small number of elements, other more formalized methods may be more useful.
Set the time and scope of the analysis. Take into consideration how quickly changes have happened in the past, and try to assess to what degree it is possible to predict common trends in demographics, product life cycles. A usual timeframe can be five to 10 years.
Decide who will be affected and have an interest in the possible outcomes. Identify their current interests, whether and why these interests have changed over time in the past.
Map basic trends and driving forces. This includes industry, economic, political, technological, legal, and societal trends. Assess to what degree these trends will affect your research question.
Describe each trend, how and why it will affect the organisation. In this step of the process, brainstorming is commonly used, where all trends that can be thought of are presented before they are assessed, to capture possible group thinking and tunnel vision. All driving forces that are considered unimportant are discarded.
Important driving forces that are relatively predictable ex. This leaves you with a number of important and unpredictable driving forces. At this point, it is also useful to assess whether any linkages between driving forces exist, and rule out any "impossible" scenarios ex.
Check for the possibility to group the linked forces and if possible, reduce the forces to the two most important. To allow the scenarios to be presented in a neat xy-diagram Identify the extremes of the possible outcomes of the two driving forces and check the dimensions for consistency and plausibility.
Three key points should be assessed: Is it possible to create probable scenarios when considering the stakeholders? This is most important when creating macro-scenarios where governments, large organisations et al.
Define the scenarios, plotting them on a grid if possible. Usually, two to four scenarios are constructed. The current situation does not need to be in the middle of the diagram inflation may already be lowand possible scenarios may keep one or more of the forces relatively constant, especially if using three or more driving forces.
One approach can be to create all positive elements into one scenario and all negative elements relative to the current situation in another scenario, then refining these. In the end, try to avoid pure best-case and worst-case scenarios.For an excellent example of strategic planning at work, consider the following case study.
Cisco and Monitor Global Business Network set out to develop scenarios that answered important questions about the future of the Internet. The following example may be relevant to your organization. Although. Nov 19, · To write a business report, start with an introduction that presents a clear idea, problem, or objective.
Next, present the facts, focusing on one main idea per paragraph, and discuss benefits and possible risks associated with your objective%(70). Second, the business plan is a requirement if you are planning to seek loan funds.
It will provide example, while writing about the legal structure of your business, you will realize the need to Outline your current business assets and report your inventory in terms of .
Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since The use and abuse of scenarios By Charles Roxburgh The use and abuse of scenarios scenarios must take into account scheduled events just beyond corporate planning horizons.
A recent example, the results of which we have already. Among the many tools a manager can use for strategic planning, scenario planning stands out for its ability to capture a whole range of possibilities in rich detail.
Our scenarios ask “what if?” questions, helping us explore alternative views of the future. They consider long-term trends in economics, energy supply and demand, geopolitical shifts and social change.
They also help governments, academia and other businesses understand the .